{"id":299,"date":"2025-08-14T09:23:21","date_gmt":"2025-08-14T00:23:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pmgineer.com\/?p=299"},"modified":"2025-08-14T21:51:49","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T12:51:49","slug":"2026%eb%85%84-%ea%b2%bd%ec%a0%9c%ec%9c%84%ea%b8%b0-part3-%ec%95%84%ed%82%ac-%ed%8c%8c%ed%85%94%ec%9d%98-18%eb%85%84-%ec%82%ac%ec%9d%b4%ed%81%b4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pmgineer.com\/?p=299","title":{"rendered":"2026\ub144 \uacbd\uc81c\uc704\uae30 [PART3 \uc544\ud0ac \ud30c\ud154\uc758 &#8217;18\ub144 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074]"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uc544\ud0ac \ud30c\ud154\uacfc \uadf8\uc758 \uc774\ub860 \uac1c\uc694<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\uc625\uc2a4\ud37c\ub4dc \ucd9c\uc2e0 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubb38\uac00 \uc544\ud0ac \ud30c\ud154(Akhil Patel)\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c\uc640 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 <strong>\uc8fc\uae30\uc801 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131<\/strong>\uc744 \uc5f0\uad6c\ud558\uc5ec \uc57d <strong>18\ub144\uc744 \uc8fc\uae30\ub85c \ubc18\ubcf5\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc774\ub860<\/strong>\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c \uc778\ubb3c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 1990\ub144\ub300 \ucd08\uc640 2008\ub144 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840\uc758 \ud070 \ubd88\ud669 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc871 \uc0ac\uc5c5\uc774 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6c0\uc744 \uacaa\uc740 \uacbd\ud5d8\uc744 \uacc4\uae30\ub85c \u201c\uc65c \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc704\uae30\uac00 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub418\ub294\uac00, \uc815\ub9d0 \uc608\uce21 \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c\uac00\u201d\ub97c \ud0d0\uad6c\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc57d 10\ub144\uc5d0 \uac78\uce5c \uc5f0\uad6c \ub05d\uc5d0 \uadf8\ub294 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 <strong>\ud1a0\uc9c0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uacbd\uae30\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\uc778<\/strong>\uc774\uba70, \ud1a0\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \u2192 \ud22c\uae30 \uacfc\uc5f4 \u2192 \ubd95\uad34\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \ud328\ud134\uc774 <strong>18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30<\/strong>\ub85c \ub098\ud0c0\ub09c\ub2e4\ub294 \u201c\uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \ube44\ubc00\u201d\uc744 \ubc1c\uacac\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc774\ub860\uc758 \uace8\uc790\ub294 <strong>\ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0(\ud1a0\uc9c0) \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc57d 14\ub144\uac04 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uace0 4\ub144\uac04 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\ub294 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074<\/strong>\uc774 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c, \ud1a0\uc9c0\uc758 \ud76c\uc18c\uc131\uacfc \uac00\uce58 \uc9d1\uc911\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ud22c\uae30\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uace0 \uacb0\uad6d \uac70\ud488 \ubd95\uad34\uc640 \uacbd\uc81c\uc704\uae30\ub97c \ucd08\ub798\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uc124\uba85\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uc54c\uba74 <strong>\uacbd\uae30 \ud638\ud669\uacfc \ubd88\ud669\uc744 \uc0ac\uc804\uc5d0 \uc608\uce21<\/strong>\ud558\uace0 \ub300\ube44\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud30c\ud154\uc740 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\ud30c\ud154\uc740 \uc774 \uac19\uc740 \ud1b5\ucc30\uc744 \ubc14\ud0d5\uc73c\ub85c \ud22c\uc790 \uc5f0\uad6c \uc11c\ube44\uc2a4\uc778 **Property Sharemarket Economics(PSE)**\uc758 \uacf5\ub3d9 \uc124\ub9bd\uc790 \uacb8 \uc774\uc0ac\ub85c \ud65c\ub3d9\ud558\uba70, \uad6c\ub3c5\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \u201c\ubbf8\ub798\ub97c \uae30\uc5b5\ud558\ub294 \ubc29\ubc95\u201d\uc744 \uac00\ub974\uce58\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 <strong>\uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc774\ub860\uc744 \ub300\uc911\ud654<\/strong>\ud558\uae30 \uc704\ud574 \uc800\uc220, \uce7c\ub7fc \uae30\uace0, \ud31f\uce90\uc2a4\ud2b8 \ucd9c\uc5f0, \uc138\ubbf8\ub098 \ub4f1\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc801\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc18c\ud1b5\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 2023\ub144 \ucd9c\uac04\ud55c \uc800\uc11c **\u300e\ubd80\ub97c \ucc3d\ucd9c\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \ube44\ubc00\u300f (\uc6d0\uc81c: <em>The Secret Wealth Advantage<\/em>)**\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc744 \uc815\ub9ac\ud558\uc5ec \uacf5\uac1c\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc544\ub798\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc774 \ucc45\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc8fc\uc7a5\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \ud30c\ud154\uc774 \uc9c1\uc811 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud55c \uc790\ub8cc, \uc678\ubd80 \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \ud3c9\uac00\uc640 \ube44\ud310, 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc758 \uacfc\uac70 \uac80\uc99d, \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud604\uc7ac(2025\ub144) \ubc0f \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \uc885\ud569\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubd84\uc11d\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u300e\ubd80\ub97c \ucc3d\ucd9c\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \ube44\ubc00\u300f\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uc8fc\uc7a5<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\ud30c\ud154\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc800\uc11c\uc778 **\u300e\ubd80\ub97c \ucc3d\ucd9c\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \ube44\ubc00\u300f**\uc740 \uacbd\uae30 \ud638\ud669\uacfc \ubd88\ud669\uc774 <strong>\uc65c \ubc18\ubcf5\ub418\ub294\uc9c0 \uadf8 \uba54\ucee4\ub2c8\uc998<\/strong>\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud558\uace0, \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc774\ub97c <strong>\uc608\uce21\ud558\uc5ec \ubd80\ub97c \ucc3d\ucd9c<\/strong>\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \uc2e4\uc6a9 \uac00\uc774\ub4dc\ub97c \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c \ucc45\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \ucc45\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \uac1c\ub150\uc740 \uc55e\uc11c \uc5b8\uae09\ud55c **\u201c18\ub144 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\u201d**\ub85c, \ud30c\ud154\uc740 <strong>\uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc57d 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\ub85c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc778\ub2e4<\/strong>\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 \uadf8\ub294 <strong>\ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0\uacfc \ud1a0\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9<\/strong>\uc774 \uc774 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \ud575\uc2ec \ub3d9\ub825\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubcf4\ub294\ub370, \ud1a0\uc9c0\uac00 <strong>\uacf5\uae09\uc774 \uace0\uc815\ub41c \ud76c\uc18c \uc790\uc6d0<\/strong>\uc774\uae30\uc5d0 \uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uc9d1\uc911\ub418\uace0 \ud22c\uae30\uc758 \ub300\uc0c1\uc774 \ub418\uba70, **\ud1a0\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9 \uae09\ub4f1 \u2192 \ud22c\uae30\uacfc\uc5f4 \u2192 \ubd95\uad34(\uc704\uae30)**\uc758 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \uc8fc\uae30\ub97c \uc8fc\ub3c4\ud55c\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd84\uc11d\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\uc2dc \ub9d0\ud574 **\u201c\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc9c0\ub300(rent)\uc758 \ubc95\uce59\u201d**\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ud1a0\uc9c0\uac00\uce58 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc774 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ucd08\uacfc\uc774\uc724\uc744 \ud761\uc218\ud558\uc5ec \uacb0\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubc18\uc758 \ubd88\uade0\ud615\uacfc \uc704\uae30\ub97c \ucd08\ub798\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uadf8\uc758 \uc774\ub860\uc801 \ud1a0\ub300\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\uc640 \uac19\uc740 **\uc740\ubc00\ud55c \ud798(\uc228\uc740 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074)**\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud574\uc57c \uc7a5\uae30\uc801 \uacbd\uae30 \uc608\uce21\uc774 \uac00\ub2a5\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud30c\ud154\uc758 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\"><strong>\uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \uad6c\uc870<\/strong>\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574, \ucc45\uc740 \ub9e4 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 **4\ub9c9(\ub2e8\uacc4)**\uc73c\ub85c \uad6c\ubd84\ud574 \uc124\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uac01 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc740 \uc57d **14\ub144\uac04\uc758 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uad6d\uba74(\ud638\ud669\uae30)**\uacfc **4\ub144\uac04\uc758 \ud558\ub77d \uad6d\uba74(\ubd88\ud669\uae30)**\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\ub904\uc9c0\uba70, \uc774\ub97c \uc880 \ub354 \uc138\ubd84\ud654\ud558\uc5ec <strong>\ub2e4\uc74c\uc758 4\ub2e8\uacc4<\/strong>\ub85c \uc815\ub9ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li style=\"line-height:1.7\"><strong>1\ub9c9: \ud68c\ubcf5\uae30<\/strong> \u2013 \uc774\uc804 \uc704\uae30\ub85c \ud1a0\uc9c0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ubc14\ub2e5\uc744 \ucc0d\uc740 \ud6c4 <strong>\uc2e0\uae30\uc220\uc758 \ub4f1\uc7a5<\/strong>\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \uacbd\uae30\uac00 \ub418\uc0b4\uc544\ub098\ub294 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc11c\uc11c\ud788 \ud65c\uae30\ub97c \ucc3e\uace0 <strong>\uac74\uc124 \uacbd\uae30\uac00 \ubd80\ud765<\/strong>\ud558\uba70, \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0 \ub099\uad00\ub860\uc774 \ud37c\uc9c0\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"line-height:1.7\"><strong>2\ub9c9: \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc911\ubc18<\/strong> \u2013 \uccab \ubc88\uc9f8 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc7a5\uc774 \uc9c0\ub098\uba74 <strong>\uc77c\uc2dc\uc801\uc778 \uce68\uccb4<\/strong>\ub098 \uc870\uc815\uc774 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294\ub370, \uc774 \uc2dc\uae30\uc5d0 \uacbd\uc81c\uc131\uc7a5\uc774 \ub454\ud654\ub418\uace0 \uc8fc\uc2dd \uc2dc\uc7a5\ub3c4 \uc57d\uc138\ub97c \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uace7 **\uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc7ac\uc815\uc815\ucc45\uc774\ub098 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc758 \ud1b5\ud654\uc644\ud654 \uc815\ucc45(\uc774\ub978\ubc14 &#8220;\ub3c8\uc758 \ub9c8\ubc95&#8221;)**\uc774 \uac1c\uc785\ud558\uc5ec \uacbd\uae30\ub97c \ubd80\uc591\ud558\uace0, \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc740 \uc7ac\ucc28 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \uad6d\uba74\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c4\uc785\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"line-height:1.7\"><strong>3\ub9c9: \ud638\ud669\uae30<\/strong> \u2013 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \ud6c4\ubc18\ubd80\uc758 <strong>\ubcf8\uaca9\uc801 \ud638\ud669<\/strong> \ub2e8\uacc4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. <strong>\ud1a0\uc9c0\uc640 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc5d0 \ud22c\uae30\uc801 \uc5f4\ud48d<\/strong>\uc774 \ubd88\uba70 \ub2e8\uae30\uac04\uc5d0 \uae09\ub4f1\ud558\uace0, \uac01\uc885 <strong>\uc704\ud5d8\uc790\uc0b0\uc5d0 \uac70\ud488<\/strong>\uc774 \ub084 \uc815\ub3c4\uc758 \uacfc\uc5f4 \uc591\uc0c1\uc774 \ud3bc\uccd0\uc9d1\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/wnl72wlr.tistory.com\/674#:~:text=3.%20%ED%98%B8%ED%99%A9%EA%B8%B0%283%EB%A7%89%29%20,%EB%B6%95%EA%B4%B4%3A%20%EA%B2%BD%EC%A0%9C%20%EC%9C%84%EA%B8%B0%20%EB%B0%9C%EC%83%9D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uc774 \uc2dc\uae30\uc758 <strong>\ud6c4\ubc18 2\ub144 \uc815\ub3c4<\/strong>\ub294 \ud2b9\ud788 **\u201c\uc2b9\uc790\uc758 \uc800\uc8fc(Winner\u2019s Curse)\u201d**\ub77c \ubd88\ub9b4 \ub9cc\ud07c \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 <strong>\ud22c\uae30\uc801 \uad11\uae30\uc640 \uacfc\uc2e0<\/strong>\uc774 \uadf9\uc5d0 \ub2ec\ud558\ub294\ub370, \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uacf3\uacf3\uc5d0\uc11c \uacbd\uace0 \uc2e0\ud638(\uc608: \uae08\ub9ac \uc0c1\uc2b9, \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uacbd\uc0c9 \uc870\uc9d0 \ub4f1)\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0a9\ub2c8\ub2e4<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"line-height:1.7\"><strong>4\ub9c9: \uc704\uae30<\/strong> \u2013 \ud638\ud669\uc758 \uc808\uc815 \uc9c1\ud6c4 \ucc3e\uc544\uc624\ub294 <strong>\ubd95\uad34\uc640 \uc704\uae30<\/strong> \ub2e8\uacc4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud22c\uae30 \ubd95\uad34\ub85c \uc790\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9 \uac70\ud488\uc774 \ud130\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uae08\uc735 \uc704\uae30\uac00 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud558\uace0 \uc2e4\ubb3c\uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \ucda9\uaca9\uc774 \ubbf8\uce69\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/wnl72wlr.tistory.com\/674#:~:text=,%EA%B5%AC%EC%A0%9C%3A%20%EC%A0%95%EB%B6%80%20%EA%B0%9C%EC%9E%85%2C%20%ED%86%B5%ED%99%94%20%ED%8C%BD%EC%B0%BD\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a> \uc77c\ubc18\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc57d 4\ub144\uac04 <strong>\uc790\uc0b0\uac00\uaca9\uc758 \ud558\ub77d\uacfc \uacbd\uc81c \uce68\uccb4<\/strong>\ub97c \uacaa\uac8c \ub418\uba70, \uac01\uad6d \uc815\ubd80\uc640 \uc911\uc559\uc740\ud589\uc774 \uae34\uae09 \uac1c\uc785\ud558\uc5ec <strong>\uad6c\uc81c \uae08\uc735, \uc720\ub3d9\uc131 \uacf5\uae09(\ud1b5\ud654 \ud33d\ucc3d)<\/strong> \ub4f1 \uc548\uc815 \uc870\uce58\ub97c \ucde8\ud558\ub294 \uc2dc\uae30\uc774\uae30\ub3c4 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc704\uae30 \uad6d\uba74\uc744 \uacac\ub514\uace0 \ub098\uba74 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc740 \ub2e4\uc2dc 1\ub9c9(\ud68c\ubcf5\uae30)\uc73c\ub85c \ub118\uc5b4\uac00 <strong>\uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc8fc\uae30<\/strong>\ub97c \uc2dc\uc791\ud558\uac8c \ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"line-height:1.7\"><em>\ubbf8\uad6d \uc2e4\uc9c8 \uc8fc\ud0dd\uac00\uaca9\uc758 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 (1970~2024). 1973\ub144, 1989\ub144, 2006-2007\ub144 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ud53c\ud06c \uc774\ud6c4 \uac01\uac01 4\ub144 \uac00\ub7c9\uc758 \ud558\ub77d\uae30\ub97c \uac70\uccd0 1977\ub144, 1996\ub144, 2013\ub144\uc5d0 \uc800\uc810\uc744 \ud615\uc131\ud588\uace0, \ud3c9\uade0 \ud53c\ud06c-\uc800\uc810 \uac04 \uc8fc\uae30\ub294 \uc57d 18.6\ub144\uc774\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics\/#:~:text=Have%20a%20look%20at%20prior,what%20happened%20after%20that%2C%20right\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a> \ud30c\ud154\uacfc \ub3d9\ub8cc\ub4e4\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \uc774\ub7f0 <strong>18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074<\/strong>\uc774 19\uc138\uae30\ubd80\ud130 \ub300\ubd80\ubd84\uc758 \uc11c\uad6c \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0\uc11c \ubc18\ubcf5\ub418\uc5b4 \uc654\ub2e4.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\ud30c\ud154\uc758 \ucc45\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c <strong>\uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uac01 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc758 \ud2b9\uc9d5<\/strong>\uc744 \uc124\uba85\ud558\ub294 \ub370\uc11c \uadf8\uce58\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0, <strong>\ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uac01 \ub2e8\uacc4\ub9c8\ub2e4 \ucde8\ud574\uc57c \ud560 \uad6c\uccb4\uc801\uc778 \uc804\ub7b5<\/strong>\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c \uc810\uc774 \ud2b9\uc9d5\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/wnl72wlr.tistory.com\/674#:~:text=%EC%B1%85%EC%9D%98%20%EC%8B%A4%EC%9A%A9%EC%A0%81%20%EA%B0%80%EC%B9%98\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4, \ud30c\ud154\uc740 <strong>\ud68c\ubcf5\uae30 \ucd08\ubc18<\/strong>(1\ub9c9)\uc5d0\ub294 \uacbd\uae30 \ubc14\ub2e5 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0\uc11c \ud1a0\uc9c0\ub098 \ud76c\uc18c \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uacfc\uac10\ud788 \ub9e4\uc785\ud560 \uac83\uc744 \uc870\uc5b8\ud558\uace0, <strong>\ud638\ud669\uae30 \uc808\uc815<\/strong>(3\ub9c9 \ud6c4\ubc18)\uc5d0\ub294 \uacfc\uc5f4 \uc2e0\ud638\ub97c \ud3ec\ucc29\ud558\uba74 \ubbf8\ub828\uc5c6\uc774 \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \ucc98\ubd84\ud558\ub77c\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 <strong>\uc704\uae30 \uad6d\uba74<\/strong>(4\ub9c9)\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uacf5\ud669\uc5d0 \ud729\uc4f8\ub9ac\uc9c0 \ub9d0\uace0 \uce68\ucc29\ud558\uac8c \ub300\uc751\ud558\uba70 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uad6c\uc81c\ucc45\uc744 \ud65c\uc6a9\ud558\ub77c\uace0 \uc870\uc5b8\ud558\uace0, \uc804\uccb4 \uc8fc\uae30 \ub3d9\uc548 <strong>\uacf5\ud3ec\uc640 \ud0d0\uc695\uc758 \uac10\uc815\uc5d0 \uc5ed\ud589\ud558\ub294 contrarian \uc804\ub7b5<\/strong>\uc744 \uacac\uc9c0\ud560 \uac83\uc744 \uad8c\uace0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/wnl72wlr.tistory.com\/674#:~:text=%ED%8C%8C%ED%85%94%EC%9D%80%20%EB%8B%A8%EC%88%9C%ED%9E%88%20%EA%B2%BD%EC%A0%9C%20%EC%82%AC%EC%9D%B4%ED%81%B4%EC%9D%84%20%EC%84%A4%EB%AA%85%ED%95%98%EB%8A%94,%EA%B7%B8%EC%9D%98%20%EC%A1%B0%EC%96%B8%EC%9D%80%20%EB%8B%A4%EC%9D%8C%EA%B3%BC%20%EA%B0%99%EC%8A%B5%EB%8B%88%EB%8B%A4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uc774\ucc98\ub7fc <strong>\uc5b8\uc81c \ub9e4\uc218\ud558\uace0 \uc5b8\uc81c \ub9e4\ub3c4\ud560\uc9c0<\/strong>, \ub610 <strong>\uc704\uae30 \uc2dc \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ub300\ube44\ud560\uc9c0<\/strong>\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc2e4\ucc9c\uc801 \uac00\uc774\ub4dc\uac00 \ub2f4\uaca8 \uc788\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0, \uc774 \ucc45\uc740 <strong>2008\ub144 \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30 \ub4f1\uc758 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uc0ac\ub840<\/strong>\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc774\ub860\uc744 \uc785\uc99d\ud558\uba74\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc77c\ubc18 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \uc27d\uac8c \uc77d\uace0 \uc801\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 <strong>\uc2e4\uc6a9 \ud22c\uc790\uc11c<\/strong>\ub85c \ud638\ud3c9\ubc1b\uc558\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud2b9\ud788 <strong>2025\ub144 \ucd08 \ud55c\uad6d\uc5b4 \ubc88\uc5ed\ubcf8<\/strong>\uc774 \ucd9c\uac04\ub418\uc790 \uad6d\ub0b4\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uacfc \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \ud070 \uad00\uc2ec\uc744 \ubd88\ub7ec\uc77c\uc73c\ucf30\uc73c\uba70, \uc720\ud29c\ube0c \ucc44\ub110 \u2018\uacbd\uc81c \uc77d\uc5b4\uc8fc\ub294 \ub0a8\uc790\u2019\uc5d0\uc11c 3\ud3b8\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 \uc774 \ucc45\uc744 \uc2ec\uce35 \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\ub294 \ub4f1 \ud654\uc81c\uac00 \ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uc6d0\uc800\uc790 \uc790\ub8cc: \ub17c\ubb38\u00b7\uce7c\ub7fc \ubc0f \uac15\uc5f0\uc5d0\uc11c\uc758 \uc774\ub860 \uc804\uac1c<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\uc544\ud0ac \ud30c\ud154\uc740 \ucc45 \uc678\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c <strong>\uc6d0\uc800\uc790 \uc790\ub8cc<\/strong>\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc774\ub860\uc744 \ubc1c\ud45c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 \ud559\uc220\uc9c0\uc5d0 \uacf5\uc2dd \ub17c\ubb38\uc744 \uac8c\uc7ac\ud558\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4, \ud22c\uc790 \ub9ac\uc11c\uce58 \uae30\uad00 \ubc0f \ub300\uc911 \ub9e4\uccb4\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574 <strong>\uce7c\ub7fc \ud615\uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \uc5f0\uad6c \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \uacf5\uc720<\/strong>\ud574 \uc654\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ucee8\ub300 \uc601\uad6d\uc758 \ud22c\uc790 \uc790\ubb38\uc0ac Southbank Investment Research\uc5d0\uc11c \ud30c\ud154\uc740 2016\ub144\uacbd\ubd80\ud130 **\u300cCycles, Trends and Forecasts\u300d**\ub77c\ub294 \ub274\uc2a4\ub808\ud130\ub97c \ubc1c\ud589\ud558\uac70\ub098 \uce7c\ub7fc\ub2c8\uc2a4\ud2b8\ub85c \ud65c\ub3d9\ud558\uba70, 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud1b5\ucc30\uc744 \ub3c5\uc790\ub4e4\uacfc \ub098\ub204\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/author\/Akhil%20Patel\/#:~:text=same%20issues%20that%20had%20impacted,Estate%20and%20Banking%20in%202010\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/author\/Akhil%20Patel\/#:~:text=Each%20and%20every%20week%20you%E2%80%99ll,and%20how%20it%20does%20not\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. 2019\ub144\uc5d0\ub294 Southbank\uc0ac\uc758 \ube14\ub85c\uadf8 <code>Capital &amp; Conflict<\/code>\uc5d0 \uc5f0\uc7ac\ud55c \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c \u201c<strong>\uc65c 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uac00 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub418\uba70, \uc65c \ub204\uad6c\ub3c4 \uc774\ub97c \ubcf4\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\ub294\uac00<\/strong>\u201d\ub77c\ub294 \ub3c4\ubc1c\uc801\uc778 \uc81c\ubaa9\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uc774\ub860\uc744 \uc124\ud30c\ud558\uae30\ub3c4 \ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/author\/Akhil%20Patel\/#:~:text=%2A%20,no%20one%20can%20see%20it\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uc774 \uae00\uc5d0\uc11c \uadf8\ub294 \uae30\uc220 \ud601\uc2e0, \uc9c0\uc815\ud559 \ubcc0\ud654 \ub4f1 \uac89\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\ub294 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ubcc0\uc218\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 <strong>\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uadfc\ubcf8\uc801\uc778 \ud798\uc774 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uc774\ub048\ub2e4<\/strong>\uba70, \uadf8\uac83\uc774 \ubc14\ub85c <strong>\uacbd\uc81c\uc801 \uc9c0\ub300(Economic Rent)\uc758 \ubc95\uce59<\/strong>\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uac15\uc870\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/market-updates\/why-the-18-year-cycle-repeats-and-why-no-one-can-see-it\/#:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20a%20hidden%20%E2%80%9Cforce%E2%80%9D%20both,term%20forecasts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/market-updates\/why-the-18-year-cycle-repeats-and-why-no-one-can-see-it\/#:~:text=This%20is%20the%20hidden%20cause,the%20Law%20of%20Economic%20Rent\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uadf8\ub294 \ub2e4\ubcf4\uc2a4\ud3ec\ub7fc \ub4f1 \uae30\ub4dd\uad8c \uc5d8\ub9ac\ud2b8\ub4e4\uc774 \ubaa8\uc5ec \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c\ub97c \ub17c\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc <strong>\uc815\uc791 \ud1a0\uc9c0\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc9c0\ub300\ucd94\uad6c \ubb38\uc81c\uac00 \ub17c\uc758\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\ub294 \ud604\uc2e4<\/strong>\uc744 \uc9c0\uc801\ud558\uba70, \ud1a0\uc9c0 \uac00\uce58\uac00 \uacc4\uc18d \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uc5ec \uacb0\uad6d \uacbd\uc81c \uc704\uae30\ub97c \ub0b3\ub294 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \uc6d0\ub9ac\ub97c \ud30c\ud5e4\ucce4\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/market-updates\/why-the-18-year-cycle-repeats-and-why-no-one-can-see-it\/#:~:text=But%20nowhere%20in%20this%20or,aspect%20of%20all%20of%20this\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/market-updates\/why-the-18-year-cycle-repeats-and-why-no-one-can-see-it\/#:~:text=It%20explains%20the%20seemingly%20irreconcilable,to%20have%20the%20most%20internal\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uce7c\ub7fc\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \ud30c\ud154\uc740 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uc774\ub860\uc801 \uadfc\uac70\ub97c \ub300\uc911\uc5d0\uac8c \uc54c\uae30 \uc27d\uac8c \ud480\uc5b4\ub0b4\uc5c8\uace0, \u201c<strong>\uc774 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc740 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \uc228\uaca8\uc9c4 \uc911\ub825\uacfc\ub3c4 \uac19\ub2e4<\/strong>\u201d\ub294 \uc2dd\uc73c\ub85c \ube44\uc720\ud558\uba70 (\uc989, <strong>\uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0\uc11c \uc911\ub825\uc758 \ubc95\uce59\ucc98\ub7fc \uc791\ub3d9\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \uc9c0\ub300\uc758 \ubc95\uce59<\/strong>\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ub73b) \ub3c5\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 \uc774\ud574\ub97c \ub3c4\uc654\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/market-updates\/why-the-18-year-cycle-repeats-and-why-no-one-can-see-it\/#:~:text=match%20at%20L243%20Make%20no,very%20foundation%20of%20the%20discipline\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/market-updates\/why-the-18-year-cycle-repeats-and-why-no-one-can-see-it\/#:~:text=Make%20no%20mistake%3A%20the%20Law,very%20foundation%20of%20the%20discipline\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\ud30c\ud154\uc740 \ub610\ud55c \ub3d9\ub8cc \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790 \ud544 \uc564\ub354\uc2a8(Phil Anderson)\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0\u00b7\uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc5d0 \uad00\ud55c <strong>\uacf5\ub3d9 \uc5f0\uad6c \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c<\/strong>\ub4e4\uc744 \uc5ec\ub7ec \ud3b8 \ubc1c\uac04\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/author\/Akhil%20Patel\/#:~:text=same%20issues%20that%20had%20impacted,Estate%20and%20Banking%20in%202010\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \ud544 \uc564\ub354\uc2a8\uc740 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc744 \ub2e4\ub8ec \uc800\uc11c *\u300eThe Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking\u300f*\uc73c\ub85c \uc720\uba85\ud55c \uc778\ubb3c\uc778\ub370, \ud30c\ud154\uc740 \uc564\ub354\uc2a8\uacfc \ud611\uc5c5\ud558\uc5ec <strong>\uc8fc\uc2dd\u00b7\uc6d0\uc790\uc7ac \uc2dc\uc7a5\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc544\uc6b0\ub974\ub294 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc5f0\uad6c<\/strong>\ub97c \uc9c4\ud589\ud574 \uc654\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/author\/Akhil%20Patel\/#:~:text=He%20wanted%20to%20understand%20why,Estate%20and%20Banking%20in%202010\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc5f0\uad6c \uacb0\uacfc\ub294 PSE\uc5d0\uc11c \uc81c\uacf5\ud558\ub294 **\u201cBoom Bust Bulletin\u201d**\uc774\ub098 \ud68c\uc6d0\uc81c \ub9ac\ud3ec\ud2b8 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc815\ub9ac\ub418\uc5b4 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \uc81c\uacf5\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics\/#:~:text=Understand%20the%20cycle%20to%20build,your%20wealth\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\uc544\ud0ac \ud30c\ud154\uc740 <strong>\uac01\uc885 \uc138\ubbf8\ub098\uc640 \ud31f\uce90\uc2a4\ud2b8, \uc778\ud130\ubdf0<\/strong>\ub97c \ud1b5\ud574\uc11c\ub3c4 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uc774\ub860\uc744 \uc804\ud30c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 2023~2024\ub144\uc5d0 \uadf8\ub294 \uc5ec\ub7ec \uae08\uc735 \ud31f\uce90\uc2a4\ud2b8\uc5d0 \ucd9c\uc5f0\ud558\uc5ec \u201c18.6\ub144 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc720\ud6a8\ud55c\uac00\u201d\ub97c \ud1a0\ub860\ud558\uace0, \ud604\uc7ac \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc0c1 <strong>\ud6c4\ubc18\ubd80\uc5d0 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 \uc5b4\ub514\ucbe4 \uc640 \uc788\ub294\uc9c0<\/strong> \uc124\uba85\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/akhils-archives-property-share-market-economics\/#:~:text=November\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a> 2023\ub144 11\uc6d4 \uc601\uad6d\uc758 <em>The Property Podcast<\/em>\uc5d0 \ucd08\uccad\ub418\uc5c8\uc744 \ub54c, \uc9c4\ud589\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \u201c<strong>\uacfc\uc5f0 \uc544\uc9c1\ub3c4 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\ub97c \uc2e0\ub8b0\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc744\uae4c?<\/strong>\u201d\ub77c\uace0 \ud68c\uc758\uc801\uc778 \uc9c8\ubb38\uc744 \ub358\uc9c0\uc790, \ud30c\ud154\uc740 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \ucd5c\uc2e0 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub3d9\ud5a5\uc744 \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \ubaa8\ub378\uc774 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 \uc720\ud6a8\ud568\uc744 \uac15\uc870\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalplayer.com\/podcasts\/2T3Rq\/#:~:text=,year%20property%20cycle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uadf8\ub294 \uc774 \uc790\ub9ac\uc5d0\uc11c 2020\ub144\ub300 \ucd08\uc758 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098\ubc1c \uacbd\uc81c \ucda9\uaca9\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 <strong>\uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc790\uccb4\ub294 \uada4\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ubcf5\uadc0<\/strong>\ud588\ub2e4\uba70, <strong>\ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \u201c\uc2b9\uc790\uc758 \uc800\uc8fc\u201d \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0 \uc9c4\uc785\ud55c \uc9d5\ud6c4\ub4e4\uc774 \uad00\ucc30\ub41c\ub2e4<\/strong>\uace0 \uc8fc\uc7a5\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c 2025\ub144 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ub2e4\ub8ec \uc138\ubbf8\ub098\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 **\u201c\ub2e4\uac00\uc624\ub294 \ud3ed\ud48d \uc804\uc5d0 \ub9c8\uc9c0\ub9c9 \uc9c8\uc8fc\u201d**\ub77c\ub294 \ud45c\ud604\uc744 \uc368\uac00\uba70, \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc815\uc810\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc9c8\uc218\ub85d \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc758 <strong>\ud22c\uae30\uc801 \ud589\ud0dc\uac00 \uadf9\ub2e8\ud654<\/strong>\ub418\uace0 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \uacbd\uace0\ud558\uae30\ub3c4 \ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/moneylifeshow.libsyn.com\/author-patel-sees-an-exuberant-rally-ahead-and-then-a-crash#:~:text=Akhil%20Patel%2C%20author%20of%20%27The,average%20American%20spends%20on%20products\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\uc774\ub807\ub4ef \ud30c\ud154\uc740 <strong>\uc800\uc220, \uce7c\ub7fc, \uc138\ubbf8\ub098 \uc804\ubc18\uc5d0 \uac78\uccd0 \uc77c\uad00\ub41c \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0<\/strong>\ub97c \uc804\ub2ec\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. <strong>\uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc740 \uc740\ubc00\ud55c \uaddc\uce59\uc131\uc744 \uac16\uace0 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub418\uba70<\/strong>, \uc774\ub97c \uc774\ud574\ud558\uba74 \ud22c\uc790\uc5d0 <strong>\uc0c1\ub300\uc801 \uc608\uce21 \uc6b0\uc704<\/strong>\ub97c \uac00\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/market-updates\/why-the-18-year-cycle-repeats-and-why-no-one-can-see-it\/#:~:text=Yesterday%20I%20introduced%20you%20to,for%20yourself%20and%20your%20families\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/market-updates\/why-the-18-year-cycle-repeats-and-why-no-one-can-see-it\/#:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20a%20hidden%20%E2%80%9Cforce%E2%80%9D%20both,term%20forecasts\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uadf8\ub294 <strong>\uc8fc\ub958 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uacc4\ub098 \uc6d4\uac00 \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc774 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc8fc\uae30\ub97c \ubcf4\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ubb34\uc2dc\ud55c\ub2e4<\/strong>\uace0 \ube44\ud310\ud558\uba74\uc11c, \uac1c\uc778 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \uc624\ud788\ub824 **\u201c\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc228\uc740 \uc2dc\uacc4\u201d**\ub97c \ucc38\uace0\ud558\ub77c\uace0 \uc870\uc5b8\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/market-updates\/why-the-18-year-cycle-repeats-and-why-no-one-can-see-it\/#:~:text=But%20I%20know%20that%20some,world%20is%20changing%20so%20rapidly\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/market-updates\/why-the-18-year-cycle-repeats-and-why-no-one-can-see-it\/#:~:text=This%20is%20the%20hidden%20cause,the%20Law%20of%20Economic%20Rent\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \ud30c\ud154 \uc790\uc2e0\uc774 \uc9c1\uc811 \uc4f4 \uc790\ub8cc\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c <strong>\uc774\ub860\uc801 \uadfc\uac70\uc640 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uc0ac\ub840<\/strong>\ub97c \ud48d\ubd80\ud558\uac8c \ub2f4\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4, \uadf8\uc758 \ucc45\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc758 \ud1a0\ub300\ub97c \uc774\ub8e8\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uc678\ubd80\uc758 \uc778\uc6a9\uacfc \ud3c9\uac00: \uc9c0\uc9c0\uc640 \ube44\ud310<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\ud30c\ud154\uc758 18\ub144 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc774\ub860\uc740 <strong>\uc77c\ubd80 \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc758 \uc9c0\uc9c0<\/strong>\ub97c \ubc1b\ub294 \ud55c\ud3b8, <strong>\uc77c\uac01\uc758 \ube44\ud310\uacfc \ud68c\uc758\ub860<\/strong>\uc5d0\ub3c4 \uc9c1\uba74\ud574 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\uc120 \uadf8\uc758 \uc774\ub860\uc5d0 <strong>\uc6b0\ud638\uc801\uc778 \uc678\ubd80 \ud3c9\uac00<\/strong>\ub85c\ub294, \uc601\uad6d\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 \ud504\ub808\ub4dc \ud574\ub9ac\uc2a8(Fred Harrison)\uc758 \uc0ac\ub840\ub97c \ub4e4 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud504\ub808\ub4dc \ud574\ub9ac\uc2a8\uc740 \ud1a0\uc9c0\uacbd\uc81c\ud559(\uc870\uc9c0\uc774\uc998) \uacc4\uc5f4\uc758 \uc11d\ud559\uc73c\ub85c, <strong>\ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uc5f0\uad6c\ud558\uc5ec 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc744 \ub300\uc911\ud654<\/strong>\ud55c \uc778\ubb3c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 2005\ub144\uc5d0 \uc774\ubbf8 \u201c2008\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ubd95\uad34\uac00 \uc62c \uac83\u201d\uc744 \uc608\uce21\ud574 \ub9de\ucd98 \ubc14 \uc788\uc73c\uba70, \ud30c\ud154\uc758 \uc800\uc11c \uc11c\ubb38\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ucd94\ucc9c\uc0ac\ub97c \ub0a8\uaca8 **\u201c\uc774\uc81c \ub354 \uc774\uc0c1 \ub204\uad6c\ub3c4 \ub2e4\uac00\uc62c \uc704\uae30\uc758 \ud76c\uc0dd\uc591\uc774 \ub420 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc5c6\ub2e4\u201d**\uba70 \uadf8\uc758 \uc5f0\uad6c\ub97c \uce58\ud558\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/thesecretwealthadvantage.com\/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CIt%E2%80%99s%20the%20secret%20hiding%20in,%E2%80%9D\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/thesecretwealthadvantage.com\/#:~:text=Business%20cycles%20expert%20and%20author,The%20Power%20in%20the%20Land\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \ud574\ub9ac\uc2a8\uc740 \uc5b8\ub860 \uc778\ud130\ubdf0\uc5d0\uc11c \u201c<strong>\uc601\uad6d \uc8fc\ud0dd\uac00\uaca9\uc740 2026\ub144\uc5d0 \uc815\uc810\uc744 \ucc0d\uc744 \uac83<\/strong>\u201d\uc774\ub77c \ub2e8\uc5b8\ud558\uae30\ub3c4 \ud588\ub294\ub370<a href=\"https:\/\/moneyweek.com\/investments\/property\/house-prices\/604717\/fred-harrison-house-prices-will-peak-in-2026#:~:text=Fred%3A%20It%20will%20be%20in,promised%20to%20cut%20taxes%20in\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>, \uc774\ub294 \ud30c\ud154\uacfc \uac70\uc758 \ub3d9\uc77c\ud55c \uc804\ub9dd\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ud574\ub9ac\uc2a8\uc740 \u201c18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc758 <strong>14\ub144 \uc0c1\uc2b9 \ud6c4 2026\ub144\uc5d0 \ud53c\ud06c, 2026~2028 \ud558\ub77d<\/strong>\u201d\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud558\uba70, \uadf8 \uadfc\uac70\ub85c \ud1a0\uc9c0\uac00\uce58 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ubd84\uc744 \ud761\uc218\ud560 \uc870\uc138\uc815\ucc45 \ubd80\uc7ac\uc640 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uac10\uc138\uc815\ucc45 \ub4f1\uc744 \ub4e4\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/moneyweek.com\/investments\/property\/house-prices\/604717\/fred-harrison-house-prices-will-peak-in-2026#:~:text=Fred%3A%20It%20will%20be%20in,promised%20to%20cut%20taxes%20in\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/moneyweek.com\/investments\/property\/house-prices\/604717\/fred-harrison-house-prices-will-peak-in-2026#:~:text=Merryn%3A%20You%20say%20they%E2%80%99ll%20level,then%20they%27ll%20fall%20fairly%20dramatically\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ud574\ub9ac\uc2a8\uc758 \uad00\uc810\uc740 \ud30c\ud154\uc758 \uc774\ub860\uacfc \ub9e5\uc744 \uac19\uc774 \ud558\uc5ec, <strong>\uc678\ubd80 \uc804\ubb38\uac00\uac00 \uadf8\uc758 \uc8fc\uae30\ub97c \uc778\uc6a9\ud55c \uacbd\uc6b0<\/strong>\ub77c \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c 2024\ub144 7\uc6d4 \ubbf8\uad6d <em>\ub098\uc2a4\ub2e5<\/em>(Nasdaq) \uae08\uc735\ub9e4\uccb4\uc5d0 \uc2e4\ub9b0 \uae30\uc0ac\uc5d0\uc11c\ub3c4, \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uc720\ud29c\ubc84 Grahan Stephan\uc758 \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc744 \uc778\uc6a9\ud558\uba70 \u201c<strong>\uacfc\uac70 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ud3ed\ub77d\uc744 \uc815\ud655\ud788 \uc608\uce21\ud55c 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74 \ub2e4\uc74c \ubd95\uad34\ub294 2026\ub144<\/strong>\u201d\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ub0b4\uc6a9\uc744 \ubcf4\ub3c4\ud558\uae30\ub3c4 \ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/articles\/will-home-prices-crash-2026#:~:text=Another%20predictor%20of%20home%20prices,crash%20will%20occur%20in%202026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uc774\ucc98\ub7fc <strong>\uc77c\ubd80 \ud22c\uc790 \uc5c5\uacc4 \uc778\uc0ac\ub4e4\uc740 \ud30c\ud154\uacfc \ud574\ub9ac\uc2a8\uc758 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9<\/strong>\ud558\uc5ec \ub2e4\uac00\uc62c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc744 \uacbd\uace0\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ub300\ube44\ucc45\uc744 \ub17c\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\ud55c\ud3b8, <strong>\ube44\ud310\uc801 \uc2dc\uac01<\/strong>\ub3c4 \uc874\uc7ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub300\ud45c\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ud22c\uc790 \ucee4\ubba4\ub2c8\ud2f0 \ub4f1\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc774 <strong>\ub108\ubb34 \uae30\uacc4\uc801\uc774\uace0 \uacb0\uc815\ub860\uc801<\/strong>\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc9c0\uc801\uc774 \ub098\uc635\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc601\uad6d <em>The Property Podcast<\/em>\uc758 \uc9c4\ud589\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 2023\ub144 \ub9d0 \ubc29\uc1a1\uc5d0\uc11c \u201c\uc6b0\ub9ac\uac00 <strong>18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\ub97c \uc2e0\ubd09\ud574\uc654\uc9c0\ub9cc \ucd5c\uadfc \uc0c1\ud669\uc744 \ubcf4\ub2c8 \ud68c\uc758\uac10\uc774 \ub4e0\ub2e4<\/strong>\u201d\uace0 \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalplayer.com\/podcasts\/2T3Rq\/#:~:text=,year%20property%20cycle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uadf8\ub4e4\uc740 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9\uc73c\ub85c \uc804\ub840\uc5c6\ub294 \ubd80\uc591\ucc45\uc774 \uc2dc\ud589\ub418\uace0 \uae08\ub9ac \ud658\uacbd\uc774 \uae09\ubcc0\ud55c \uc810\uc744 \ub4e4\uc5b4, \u201c\uc774\ub7f0 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ubcc0\uc218\ub4e4\ub85c <strong>\uc804\ud1b5\uc801 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \ubb34\ub825\ud654\ub41c \uac83 \uc544\ub2cc\uac00<\/strong>\u201d\ub77c\ub294 \uc758\ubb38\uc744 \uc81c\uae30\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalplayer.com\/podcasts\/2T3Rq\/#:~:text=Rob%20%26%20Rob%20are%20losing,com%2Flistener%20for%20privacy%20information\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uc774\ucc98\ub7fc \uc77c\ubd80 \uc2e4\ubb34 \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub294 \ucd5c\uadfc 2~3\ub144\uc758 \ud2b9\uc218\ud55c \uc0c1\ud669(\ud32c\ub370\ubbf9, \uacf5\uae09\ub9dd \uc1fc\ud06c, \uc778\ud50c\ub808\uc774\uc158 \uae09\ub4f1\uacfc \uae09\uc18d \uae08\ub9ac\uc778\uc0c1 \ub4f1)\uc774 <strong>18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30 \ud328\ud134\uc744 \uad50\ub780<\/strong>\uc2dc\ucf30\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ud30c\ud154\uc740 \uc774\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574 \u201c\uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c\ub3c4 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 <strong>\uc77c\uc2dc\uc801 \ucda9\uaca9<\/strong>\uc744 \ubc1b\ub294 \uc77c\uc740 \uc788\uc73c\ub098 \uacb0\uad6d <strong>\uada4\ub3c4\uc5d0 \ubcf5\uadc0<\/strong>\ud588\ub2e4\u201d\uba74\uc11c, 2020\ub144\uc758 \ucf54\ub85c\ub098 \uc1fc\ud06c\ub97c \uc624\ud788\ub824 <strong>\uc911\uac04\uc870\uc815(market correction)<\/strong> \uc815\ub3c4\ub85c \ud574\uc11d\ud558\uace0 \uc5ec\uc804\ud788 2026\ub144 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc815\uc810 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\ub610 \ub2e4\ub978 \ube44\ud310\uc73c\ub85c\ub294, <strong>\ub370\uc774\ud130 \ub9de\ucd94\uae30(backfitting)<\/strong> \uc758\ud639\uc774 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc774\ub860\uc774 \uacfc\uac70 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub97c \uc0ac\ud6c4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub07c\uc6cc\ub9de\ucd98 \uac83\uc774\uc9c0 \uc608\uce21\ub825\uc774 \uc785\uc99d\ub418\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c **2\ucc28 \uc138\uacc4\ub300\uc804 \uc2dc\uae30(1930~40\ub144\ub300)**\uc5d0\ub294 \uc804\uc7c1\uc73c\ub85c \uacbd\uc81c\uad6c\uc870\uac00 \ubcc0\ub3d9\ud558\uba74\uc11c <strong>\uc8fc\uae30 \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc774 \ub4e4\uc5b4\ub9de\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc740 \uc0ac\ub840<\/strong>\uac00 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/monevator.com\/the-investor-sentiment-cycle\/#:~:text=Interestingly%20the%2018,or%20climate%2C%20how%20will%20that\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uc77c\ubd80 \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 1929\ub144 \ub300\uacf5\ud669 \uc774\ud6c4 1940\ub144\ub300\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 <strong>18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30 \ub9ac\ub4ec\uc744 \ubc97\uc5b4\ub0ac\ub2e4\uac00<\/strong> \uc804\ud6c4\uc5d0 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc8fc\uae30\uac00 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub41c \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ubd05\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud30c\ud154\uacfc \ud574\ub9ac\uc2a8 \uc9c4\uc601\ub3c4 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c <strong>\uc608\uc678\uc801 \uc2dc\uae30<\/strong>\ub97c \uc778\uc815\ud558\ub294\ub370, **\u201c\uc138\uacc4\ub300\uc804\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \ub300\uaca9\ubcc0\uc774 \uc5c6\ub294 \ud55c \uc8fc\uae30\ub294 \ub300\uccb4\ub85c 18\ub144 \uc548\ud30e\uc73c\ub85c \uc9c0\uc18d\ub41c\ub2e4\u201d**\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/forums\/48\/topics\/152459-18-year-real-estate-cycles---next-bust-2024?page=2#:~:text=Foldvary%20uses%20as%20the%20basis,Foldvary%27s%20full%2040%20page%20brief\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uc774\ub4e4\uc740 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uc804\uc7c1\uc774\ub098 \uc0ac\ud68c\uc8fc\uc758 \ud601\uba85 \uac19\uc740 \ub300\ud615 \ubcc0\uc218 \uc5c6\uc774 <strong>\uc2dc\uc7a5\uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc720\uc9c0\ub418\ub294 \ud55c, \ud1a0\uc9c0 \ud22c\uae30\uac00 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub418\ubbc0\ub85c \uc8fc\uae30\ub294 \ubd88\uac00\ud53c<\/strong>\ud558\ub2e4\uace0 \ubc18\ubc15\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ube44\ud310\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 \u201c<strong>\uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2e4\ub974\ub2e4(This time is different)<\/strong>\u201d\ub294 \uc785\uc7a5\uc744 \uc644\uc804\ud788 \ubc30\uc81c\ud560 \uc218 \uc5c6\uc73c\uba70, \ud2b9\ud788 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \uc815\ucc45 \ub300\uc751 \uc5ec\ud558(\uc608: \ub300\uaddc\ubaa8 \ubd80\uc591\ucc45\uc774\ub098 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uaddc\uc81c \ub3c4\uc785)\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c <strong>\uc8fc\uae30\uc758 \uae38\uc774\uc640 \uac15\ub3c4\uac00 \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4<\/strong>\uace0 \uc9c0\uc801\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc989, \uacfc\uac70\uc758 \ud328\ud134\uc774 \ubbf8\ub798\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ub611\uac19\uc774 \uc7ac\ud604\ub41c\ub2e4\ub294 <strong>\uadc0\ub0a9\uc801 \ucd94\ub860\uc758 \uc704\ud5d8<\/strong>\uc744 \uacbd\uacc4\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\uc815\ub9ac\ud558\uba74, <strong>\ud30c\ud154\uc758 \uc774\ub860\uc740 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc5f0\uad6c\uc790\ub4e4\uacfc \uc77c\ubd80 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \uac15\ud55c \uc124\ub4dd\ub825\uc744 \uc9c0\ub2cc \ubc18\uba74<\/strong>, \uc77c\ubd80 \uc8fc\ub958 \uacbd\uc81c\uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uacfc \ud22c\uc790 \ucee4\ubba4\ub2c8\ud2f0 \uc77c\uac01\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 <strong>\uc131\uae09\ud55c \uc77c\ubc18\ud654\ub098 \ud604\uc2e4 \ubcc0\ud654 \ubbf8\ud761 \ubc18\uc601<\/strong> \ub4f1\uc758 \uc774\uc720\ub85c \uc2e0\uc911\ud55c \uacac\ud574\ub97c \ubcf4\uc774\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc740 2008\ub144 \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30\ub97c \uc0ac\uc804\uc5d0 \uacbd\uace0\ud55c \uba87 \uc548\ub418\ub294 \ubaa8\ub378\ub85c \uc5b8\uae09\ub420 \ub9cc\ud07c \uc77c\uc815 \ubd80\ubd84 <strong>\uc131\uacfc\uc640 \uc601\ud5a5\ub825<\/strong>\uc744 \uc778\uc815\ubc1b\uace0 \uc788\uc5b4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/forums\/48\/topics\/152459-18-year-real-estate-cycles---next-bust-2024?page=2#:~:text=Foldvary%20points%20out%20that%20the,Foldvary%27s%20full%2040%20page%20brief\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>, \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc2e4\uc81c \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc804\uac1c\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \uadf8 \uc720\ud6a8\uc131\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud3c9\uac00\uac00 \ub354\uc6b1 \ubd84\uba85\ud574\uc9c8 \uc804\ub9dd\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uacfc \uacfc\uac70 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \ubd80\ud569 \uc0ac\ub840 \ubc0f \uc608\uc678 \ubd84\uc11d<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\"><strong>\ud30c\ud154\uc758 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30 \uc774\ub860\uc774 \uacfc\uac70 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc640 \uc5bc\ub9c8\ub098 \ubd80\ud569\ud558\ub294\uc9c0<\/strong> \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf4\uba74, <strong>\ub300\uccb4\ub85c \uc8fc\uc694 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ubd95\uad34 \uc2dc\uc810\ub4e4\uc744 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud788 \uc815\ud655\ud788 \uc124\uba85<\/strong>\ud55c\ub2e4\ub294 \ud3c9\uac00\uac00 \uac00\ub2a5\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801\uc73c\ub85c <strong>\ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \uc601\uad6d\uc758 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uc2dc\uc7a5<\/strong>\uc744 \ubcf4\uba74, \ub300\ub7b5 \ub2e4\uc74c\uacfc \uac19\uc740 \uc8fc\uae30\uac00 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li style=\"line-height:1.7\"><strong>1970\ub144\ub300 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074:<\/strong> 1950~60\ub144\ub300\uc5d0 \uc804\ud6c4 \ubcf5\uad6c\uc640 \uc778\uad6c\uc99d\uac00\ub85c \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ud638\ud669\uc774 \uc9c0\uc18d\ub418\ub2e4 <strong>1973\ub144<\/strong> \uc624\uc77c\uc1fc\ud06c \ubb34\ub835 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ubc84\ube14 \ubd95\uad34\uc640 \uc8fc\uc2dd\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud3ed\ub77d\uc774 \ubc1c\uc0dd\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc57d 4\ub144\uac04 \uce68\uccb4\ub97c \uac70\uccd0 <strong>1977\ub144\uacbd \uc800\uc810<\/strong>\uc744 \ucc0d\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"line-height:1.7\"><strong>1980~90\ub144\ub300 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074:<\/strong> 1970\ub144\ub300 \ud6c4\ubc18\ubd80\ud130 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\uc138\ub85c \uc804\ud658\ud558\uc5ec <strong>1980\ub144\ub300 \ud638\ud669<\/strong>\uc744 \uad6c\uac00\ud558\ub2e4 <strong>1989\ub144<\/strong>\uc744 \uc804\ud6c4\ud574 \uc77c\ubcf8\ubc1c \uc790\uc0b0\uac70\ud488 \ubd95\uad34, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc800\ucd95\ub300\ubd80\uc870\ud569(S&amp;L) \uc0ac\ud0dc \ub4f1\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uae09\ub77d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 <strong>1990\ub144\ub300 \ucd08\ubc18(1993~1995\ub144\uaed8)<\/strong> \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9 \uc800\uc810\uc744 \uae30\ub85d\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"line-height:1.7\"><strong>2000\ub144\ub300 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074:<\/strong> 1990\ub144\ub300 \uc911\ubc18\ubd80\ud130 \uc2dc\uc791\ub41c IT\ud601\uc2e0\uacfc \uc800\uae08\ub9ac \uae30\uc870 \uc544\ub798 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0\uc774 \uc0c1\uc2b9\ud558\uc5ec <strong>2000\ub144\ub300 \uc911\ubc18 \uc0ac\uc0c1 \ucd5c\ub300\uc758 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ubc84\ube14<\/strong>\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc84c\uace0, \uacb0\uad6d <strong>2007~2008\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30<\/strong>\ub85c \uac70\ud488\uc774 \ud130\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uc8fc\ud0dd\uac00\uaca9\uc740 <strong>2011~2012\ub144\uacbd \ubc14\ub2e5<\/strong>\uc744 \ud655\uc778\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics\/#:~:text=Have%20a%20look%20at%20prior,what%20happened%20after%20that%2C%20right\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li style=\"line-height:1.7\"><strong>\ucd5c\uadfc \uc0ac\uc774\ud074:<\/strong> 2010\ub144\ub300 \ucd08\ubc18\ubd80\ud130 \ub2e4\uc2dc \uc644\ub9cc\ud55c \ud68c\ubcf5\uc774 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uc5b4, 2020\ub144\ub300 \ucd08\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc804\uc138\uacc4\uc801 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uac15\uc138\uc7a5\uc774 \uc804\uac1c\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. 2020\ub144 \ud32c\ub370\ubbf9\uc73c\ub85c \uc7a0\uc2dc \uc704\ucd95\ub418\uc5c8\uc73c\ub098 \uac01\uad6d\uc758 \ubd80\uc591\ucc45\uc73c\ub85c \uc790\uc0b0\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ube60\ub974\uac8c \ud68c\ubcf5\ub418\uc5b4 \ud604\uc7ac(2025\ub144)\uae4c\uc9c0 <strong>\uc0c1\uc2b9 \ucd94\uc138\ub97c \uc774\uc5b4\uc628 \uc0c1\ud669<\/strong>\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774 \uc8fc\uae30\uac00 \ud30c\ud154 \uc774\ub860\ub300\ub85c\ub77c\uba74 <strong>2024~2026\ub144 \uc0ac\uc774 \uc815\uc810<\/strong>\uc5d0 \uc774\ub974\uace0, \uc774\ud6c4 <strong>\ud06c\uac8c \uaebe\uc774\ub294 \ud558\ub77d\uc7a5<\/strong>\uc774 \uc62c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131\uc774 \ub192\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/market-updates\/why-the-18-year-cycle-repeats-and-why-no-one-can-see-it\/#:~:text=We%20are%20presently%20close%20to,cycle%20to%20arrive%20around%202026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/articles\/will-home-prices-crash-2026#:~:text=Another%20predictor%20of%20home%20prices,crash%20will%20occur%20in%202026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\uc704\uc758 \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcf4\ub4ef, <strong>1973 \u2192 1990(1989) \u2192 2008<\/strong>\uc73c\ub85c \uc774\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 <strong>\uc57d 18\ub144 \uac04\uaca9\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \uc704\uae30<\/strong>\ub4e4\uc774 \ud655\uc778\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics\/#:~:text=Have%20a%20look%20at%20prior,what%20happened%20after%20that%2C%20right\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ud30c\ud154\uacfc \ud574\ub9ac\uc2a8\ubfd0\ub9cc \uc544\ub2c8\ub77c \uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc790 \ud504\ub808\ub4dc \ud3f4\ub4dc\ubca0\ub9ac(Fred Foldvary) \ub4f1\ub3c4 \uc774 \ud328\ud134\uc5d0 \uc8fc\ubaa9\ud558\uc5ec, **\u201c\ub300\uacf5\ud669 \uc774\ud6c4 \uc11c\ubc29 \uad6d\uac00\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 18\ub144 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \uc77c\uad00\ub418\uac8c \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\ub2e4\u201d**\uace0 \ubcf4\uace0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/forums\/48\/topics\/152459-18-year-real-estate-cycles---next-bust-2024?page=2#:~:text=I%20have%20been%20researching%20real,2006%20using%20this%20same%20methodology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/forums\/48\/topics\/152459-18-year-real-estate-cycles---next-bust-2024?page=2#:~:text=Foldvary%20points%20out%20that%20the,Foldvary%27s%20full%2040%20page%20brief\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \ud3f4\ub4dc\ubca0\ub9ac\ub294 1997\ub144\uc5d0 \uc791\uc131\ud55c \ubcf4\uace0\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c **\u201c2008\ub144\uc5d0 \ud070 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uacbd\uae30\uce68\uccb4\uac00 \uc62c \uac83\u201d**\uc73c\ub85c \uc608\uc5b8\ud588\uace0, \uc774\ub294 \uc801\uc911\ud55c \ubc14 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/forums\/48\/topics\/152459-18-year-real-estate-cycles---next-bust-2024?page=2#:~:text=I%20have%20been%20researching%20real,2006%20using%20this%20same%20methodology\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uadf8\ub294 1925~1973\ub144\uc5d0 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \ud3c9\uc18c\uc640 \ub2ec\ub9ac \uc5b4\uae0b\ub09c \uc774\uc720\ub97c \ubd84\uc11d\ud558\uba74\uc11c, <strong>2\ucc28 \ub300\uc804 \ub4f1 \ud2b9\uc218 \uc694\uc778\uc774 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uad50\ub780<\/strong>\uc2dc\ucf30\ub2e4\uace0 \uc124\uba85\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/forums\/48\/topics\/152459-18-year-real-estate-cycles---next-bust-2024?page=2#:~:text=Foldvary%20uses%20as%20the%20basis,Foldvary%27s%20full%2040%20page%20brief\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ubbf8\uad6d\uc758 \uacbd\uc6b0 1930\ub144\ub300 \ub300\uacf5\ud669\uacfc 1940\ub144\ub300 \uc138\uacc4\ub300\uc804 \uae30\uac04\uc5d0\ub294 \uc815\ubd80\uc758 \ud1b5\uc81c\uacbd\uc81c\uc640 \uc804\uc2dc\uacbd\uc81c\ub85c <strong>\ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc774 \uc815\uc0c1\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uae30\ub2a5\ud558\uc9c0 \ubabb\ud574<\/strong> \uc8fc\uae30 \ub9ac\ub4ec\uc774 \ud750\ud2b8\ub7ec\uc84c\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc804\uc7c1 \uc774\ud6c4\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2e4\uc2dc \ud1a0\uc9c0 \ud22c\uae30\uac00 \ud65c\ubc1c\ud574\uc9c0\uba74\uc11c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \uc7ac\uac1c\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/forums\/48\/topics\/152459-18-year-real-estate-cycles---next-bust-2024?page=2#:~:text=Foldvary%20uses%20as%20the%20basis,Foldvary%27s%20full%2040%20page%20brief\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\ub530\ub77c\uc11c <strong>18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc774 \uac00\uc7a5 \uc798 \ub9de\uc544\ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c0\ub294 \uc0ac\ub840<\/strong>\ub294 <strong>\uc790\uc720\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ud658\uacbd\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcc4\ub2e4\ub978 \uad6c\uc870\uc801 \ub2e8\uc808 \uc5c6\uc774 \uc9c4\ud589\ub41c \uc804\ud6c4(\u6230\u5f8c) \uc790\ubcf8\uc8fc\uc758 \uae30\uac04<\/strong>\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubbf8\uad6d, \uc601\uad6d, \ud638\uc8fc \ub4f1\uc758 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0\u00b7\uacbd\uc81c \ub370\uc774\ud130\uc5d0\uc11c \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc8fc\uae30\uc131\uc774 \ub69c\ub837\uc774 \uad00\ucc30\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ucee8\ub300, \ubbf8\uad6d \uc2e4\uc9c8\uc8fc\ud0dd\uac00\uaca9 \uc9c0\ud45c\ub85c \ubcfc \ub54c <strong>1973, 1989, 2006-07\ub144\uc5d0 \uac01\uac01 \ud53c\ud06c<\/strong>\uac00 \ub098\ud0c0\ub0ac\uace0, <strong>\uadf8 \ud6c4 3~5\ub144\uac04 \ud558\ub77d\ud558\uc5ec 1977, 1996, 2011-13\ub144<\/strong>\uc5d0 \uc800\uc810\uc744 \ucc0d\uc740 \ud750\ub984\uc774 \ud655\uc778\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud3c9\uade0\uc801\uc73c\ub85c <strong>\ud53c\ud06c\uc5d0\uc11c \ub2e4\uc74c \ud53c\ud06c\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc57d 18\ub144, \ud53c\ud06c-\ud2b8\ub85c\ud504(\uc800\uc810) \uac04 4~5\ub144<\/strong>\uc758 \uc8fc\uae30\uac00 \uc788\uc5c8\ub358 \uc148\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc601\uad6d\ub3c4 1989\ub144 \uc8fc\ud0dd\uac00\uaca9 \ud3ed\ub77d, 2008\ub144 \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30 \uc2dc \ud558\ub77d \ub4f1 \ubbf8\uad6d\uacfc \ube44\uc2b7\ud55c \uc8fc\uae30\uac00 \uad00\ucc30\ub429\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\"><strong>\uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc758 \uc608\uc678\uc640 \ud55c\uacc4<\/strong>\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \uace0\ub824\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc6b0\uc120 \uc55e\uc11c \uc5b8\uae09\ud588\ub4ef <strong>\uc138\uacc4\ub300\uc804\uc774\ub098 \ub300\uacf5\ud669 \uac19\uc740 \uac70\uc2dc\ucda9\uaca9\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \uc9c0\uc5f0<\/strong>\ub418\uac70\ub098 <strong>\uc77c\uc2dc \uc911\ub2e8<\/strong>\ub41c \uc0ac\ub840\uac00 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub610\ud55c <strong>\uad6d\uac00\ubcc4\ub85c \uc8fc\uae30\uc758 \ud3b8\ucc28<\/strong>\uac00 \uc874\uc7ac\ud574, \ub3d9\uc77c\ud55c 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uac00 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \ub098\ub77c\uc5d0 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ub418\uc9c0\ub294 \uc54a\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740 1990\ub144 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ubc84\ube14 \ubd95\uad34 \uc774\ud6c4 <strong>\uc7a5\uae30\uce68\uccb4\ub85c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \ud06c\uac8c \uc5b4\uae0b\ub09c \uacbd\uc6b0<\/strong>\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc77c\ubcf8\uc740 1990\ub144 \ud3ed\ub77d \ud6c4 2000\ub144\ub300 \ub0b4\ub0b4 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc800\uc810 \ubd80\uadfc\uc5d0 \uba38\ubb3c\ub7ec \uc804\ud1b5\uc801 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uacfc \ub2e4\ub974\uac8c \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc774\ucc98\ub7fc <strong>\uac70\ud488\uc758 \ud06c\uae30\uc640 \ubd95\uad34 \ud6c4 \ud68c\ubcf5\uc18d\ub3c4\ub294 \uac01\uad6d\uc758 \uacbd\uc81c \uccb4\uc9c8\uacfc \uc815\ucc45 \ub300\uc751\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ub2ec\ub77c\uc9c8 \uc218 \uc788\uc5b4<\/strong>, 18\ub144\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uc22b\uc790\uac00 \uae30\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ub4e4\uc5b4\ub9de\uc9c0 \uc54a\uc744 \ub54c\ub3c4 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\ub610\ud55c <strong>\uc8fc\uae30\uc758 \uae38\uc774\uac00 \ud56d\uc0c1 \uc77c\uc815\ud558\uc9c0 \uc54a\uace0 1~2\ub144 \ubcc0\ub3d9\ud3ed\uc774 \uc788\ub2e4<\/strong>\ub294 \uc810\ub3c4 \uc720\uc758\ud574\uc57c \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ud30c\ud154\ub3c4 \u201c18\ub144\u201d\uc744 \uc808\ub300 \ubd88\ubcc0\uc758 \ubc95\uce59\uc73c\ub85c \uc5ec\uae30\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 **\u201c\uc57d 18\ub144 \ub0b4\uc678\u201d**\uc758 \uc8fc\uae30\ub85c \uc774\ud574\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/market-updates\/why-the-18-year-cycle-repeats-and-why-no-one-can-see-it\/#:~:text=We%20are%20presently%20close%20to,cycle%20to%20arrive%20around%202026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uadf8\uc758 \ub9d0\ub300\ub85c 2026\ub144\uc774 <strong>\uc815\uc810<\/strong>\uc774\ub77c \ud574\ub3c4, \uc2e4\uc81c \uc704\uae30\ub294 2025\ub144\uc5d0 \uc55e\ub2f9\uaca8 \uc62c \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\uace0 2027\ub144\uc73c\ub85c \ub2a6\ucdb0\uc9c8 \uc218\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \ub73b\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ubbc0\ub85c 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc740 <strong>\uc5c4\ubc00\ud55c \uc5f0\ub3c4 \uc608\uce21\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 \uac70\uc2dc\uc801\uc778 \ud750\ub984 \ud30c\uc545<\/strong>\uc5d0 \uc720\uc6a9\ud55c \ud234\ub85c \ubcf4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud0c0\ub2f9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc989, **\u201c\uc9c0\uae08 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc0c1 \uc5b4\ub290 \uad6d\uba74\uc778\uac00\u201d**\ub97c \uc810\uac80\ud558\uace0 \ud22c\uc790 \uc804\ub7b5\uc758 \ud070 \ubc29\ud5a5\uc131\uc744 \uc7a1\ub294 \ub370 \ucc38\uace0\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/wnl72wlr.tistory.com\/674#:~:text=%ED%8C%8C%ED%85%94%EC%9D%80%20%EB%8B%A8%EC%88%9C%ED%9E%88%20%EA%B2%BD%EC%A0%9C%20%EC%82%AC%EC%9D%B4%ED%81%B4%EC%9D%84%20%EC%84%A4%EB%AA%85%ED%95%98%EB%8A%94,%EA%B7%B8%EC%9D%98%20%EC%A1%B0%EC%96%B8%EC%9D%80%20%EB%8B%A4%EC%9D%8C%EA%B3%BC%20%EA%B0%99%EC%8A%B5%EB%8B%88%EB%8B%A4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\uacb0\ub860\uc801\uc73c\ub85c, <strong>\ud30c\ud154\uc758 18\ub144 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc774\ub860\uc740 \uacfc\uac70 \uc218\uc2ed\ub144\uac04 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub418\uc5b4\uc628 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0\u00b7\uacbd\uc81c \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc758 \uc8fc\uae30\ub97c \uc0c1\ub2f9 \ubd80\ubd84 \uc124\uba85\ud574\uc8fc\uba70<\/strong>, \ud2b9\ud788 <strong>1970\ub144\ub300 \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uc8fc\uc694 \ubd95\uad34 \uc2dc\uc810\ub4e4\uc744 \uc608\uacac<\/strong>\ud574\uc628 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c \ud3c9\uac00\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc <strong>\uc804\uc7c1, \uc815\ucc45\ubcc0\ud654, \uacbd\uc81c\uccb4\uc81c \ucc28\uc774 \ub4f1\uc73c\ub85c \uc778\ud55c \uc608\uc678 \uc0ac\ub840<\/strong>\ub3c4 \uc874\uc7ac\ud558\ubbc0\ub85c, \uc774 \uc774\ub860\uc744 \uc808\ub300\uc801 \ubc95\uce59\uc73c\ub85c \ub9f9\uc2e0\ud558\uae30\ubcf4\ub2e4\ub294 <strong>\uc720\uc5f0\ud55c \uc801\uc6a9\uacfc \ud568\uaed8 \ub2e4\ub978 \ubcf4\uc870\uc9c0\ud45c\ub4e4\uacfc \uc885\ud569\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud310\ub2e8<\/strong>\ud558\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ubc14\ub78c\uc9c1\ud558\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc744 \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc740 \uac15\uc870\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\ud604\uc7ac(2025\ub144) \uc0c1\ud669\uacfc \ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0\uc758 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\"><strong>2025\ub144 \ud604\uc7ac\uc758 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\uc640 \uc2dc\uc7a5 \uc0c1\ud669<\/strong>\uc740 \ud30c\ud154\uc758 18\ub144 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc774\ub860\uc5d0\uc11c \ubcfc \ub54c <strong>\uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \ucd5c\ud6c4\uad6d\uba74<\/strong>\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc \ubcf4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc55e\uc11c \uc0b4\ud3b4\ubcf8 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc5ed\uc0ac\ub85c \ubbf8\ub8e8\uc5b4\ubcf4\uba74, 2008\ub144 \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30\uac00 \uc9c1\uc804 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \ubd95\uad34\uc810\uc774\uc5c8\uace0 20112012\ub144\uc744 \uc800\uc810\uc73c\ub85c \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \uc2dc\uc791\ub418\uc5c8\ub2e4\uace0 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub85c\ubd80\ud130 \uc57d 1314\ub144\uc774 \uc9c0\ub09c 2025\ub144\uc740 <strong>\ub2e4\uc74c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc815\uc810 \ubd80\uadfc<\/strong>\uc5d0 \ud574\ub2f9\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ud30c\ud154\uc740 **\u201c\ud604\uc7ac \uacbd\uc81c\ub294 \uc7a5\uae30 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \uc815\uc810\uc5d0 \uac00\uae4c\uc6cc\uc9c0\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\u201d**\uace0 \uc9c4\ub2e8\ud558\uba70, \uc774 \uc2dc\uae30 \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc5d0\ub294 **\u201c\uae30\ucd08\uc5ec\uac74(fundamental)\uc744 \ubb34\uc2dc\ud55c \ucc44 \ud22c\uae30\uc801 \uac70\ud488\uc774 \ucee4\uc9c0\ub294 \ub7a0\ub9ac\u201d**\uac00 \ud3bc\uccd0\uc9c8 \uc704\ud5d8\uc774 \ub192\ub2e4\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/moneylifeshow.libsyn.com\/author-patel-sees-an-exuberant-rally-ahead-and-then-a-crash#:~:text=Akhil%20Patel%2C%20author%20of%20%27The,average%20American%20spends%20on%20products\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uadf8\uc758 \ud45c\ud604\uc5d0 \ub530\ub974\uba74, \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 <strong>\uc774\uc131\uc801 \ud310\ub2e8\uc744 \uc783\uace0 \uc790\uc2e0\ub9cc\ub9cc\ud574\uc9c0\ub294 \uc2dc\uae30<\/strong>\uac00 \ubc14\ub85c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \ub9d0\uae30\uc774\uba70, <strong>\uc9c0\uae08\uc774 \uadf8\ub7f0 \uad6d\uba74\uc5d0 \uc9c4\uc785\ud588\ub2e4<\/strong>\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/moneylifeshow.libsyn.com\/author-patel-sees-an-exuberant-rally-ahead-and-then-a-crash#:~:text=the%20economy%20is%20nearing%20the,average%20American%20spends%20on%20products\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>. \uc2e4\uc81c 2023\ub144\uc744 \uc9c0\ub098\uba70 \uc804\uc138\uacc4\uc801\uc73c\ub85c <strong>\uc77c\ubd80 \uc790\uc0b0\uad70\uc758 \uacfc\uc5f4 \uc870\uc9d0<\/strong>\uc774 \uad00\ucc30\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc608\ub97c \ub4e4\uc5b4 <strong>\ubbf8\uad6d \uc99d\uc2dc<\/strong>\ub294 \uc778\uacf5\uc9c0\ub2a5(AI) \ubd90 \ub4f1\uc5d0 \ud798\uc785\uc5b4 2023\ub144\uc5d0 \uae09\ub4f1\ud588\uace0, <strong>\ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uc2dc\uc7a5<\/strong>\ub3c4 \uae08\ub9ac \uc778\uc0c1\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \uc77c\ubd80 \uc9c0\uc5ed\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uc2e0\uae30\ub85d\uc744 \uc4f0\ub294 \ub4f1 \uc774\uc0c1 \uacfc\uc5f4 \ud604\uc0c1\uc744 \ubcf4\uc600\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \ud070\uc190\uc778 <strong>\uc911\uad6d<\/strong>\uc5d0\uc11c\uc870\ucc28 2023\ub144\uae4c\uc9c0\ub294 \ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0 \uac00\uaca9\uc774 \uace0\uc810\uc744 \uc720\uc9c0\ud588\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\ud30c\ud154\uc758 \uc774\ub860\uc5d0 \ube44\ucd94\uc5b4 \uc774\ub7f0 \ud604\uc0c1\uc740 <strong>\u201c\uc2b9\uc790\uc758 \uc800\uc8fc\u201d \ub2e8\uacc4<\/strong>\uc758 \ud2b9\uc9d5\uacfc \ubd80\ud569\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc989 <strong>\uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \ucd5c\ud6c4\uc758 \ud22c\uae30 \uad11\ud48d<\/strong>\uc774 \ubd88\uba74\uc11c \u201c\uc774\ubc88\uc5d0\ub294 \ub2e4\ub974\ub2e4, \uc601\uc6d0\ud55c \uc0c1\uc2b9\ub9cc \uc788\uc744 \ubfd0\u201d\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ub9f9\uc2e0\uc774 \ud37c\uc9c0\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7ec\ub098 \ubc14\ub85c \uadf8\ub54c\uac00 <strong>\ud3ed\ud48d \uc804 \uace0\uc694<\/strong>\uc77c \uc218 \uc788\uc74c\uc744 \ud30c\ud154\uc740 \uac15\uc870\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 2023\ub144 \ud55c \uc778\ud130\ubdf0\uc5d0\uc11c **\u201c\uc774 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \uc815\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \uc5c4\uccad\ub09c \ud22c\uae30\uc801 \uacfc\uc5f4\uc774 \uc788\uc740 \ud6c4 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc774 \ub3cc\uc544\uc11c\uba74, \uc21c\uc2dd\uac04\uc5d0 \ub098\ub77d\uc73c\ub85c \ub5a8\uc5b4\uc9c8 \uac83\u201d**\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/moneylifeshow.libsyn.com\/author-patel-sees-an-exuberant-rally-ahead-and-then-a-crash#:~:text=the%20economy%20is%20nearing%20the,average%20American%20spends%20on%20products\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>. \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \ubc1c\uc5b8\uc740 <strong>2025~2026\ub144 \uacbd \uacbd\uc81c\uc704\uae30 \uac00\ub2a5\uc131<\/strong>\uc744 \uac15\ud558\uac8c \uc2dc\uc0ac\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c\ub85c \ud30c\ud154\uc740 \uc774\ubbf8 \uba87 \ub144 \uc804\ubd80\ud130 <strong>2026\ub144\ucbe4 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \ud53c\ud06c \ubc0f \uae09\ub77d<\/strong>\uc744 \uc608\uacac\ud574\uc654\uace0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalandconflict.com\/market-updates\/why-the-18-year-cycle-repeats-and-why-no-one-can-see-it\/#:~:text=We%20are%20presently%20close%20to,cycle%20to%20arrive%20around%202026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>, \uadf8 \uc804\ub9dd\uc744 \ud604\uc7ac\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc720\uc9c0\ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\uc758 \uc2a4\uc2b9 \uaca9\uc778 \ud504\ub808\ub4dc \ud574\ub9ac\uc2a8 \uc5ed\uc2dc \u201c2026\ub144 \uc8fc\ud0dd\uc2dc\uc7a5 \ubd95\uad34\ub294 \ud544\uc5f0\u201d\uc774\ub77c\uace0 \ubabb \ubc15\uc740 \uc0c1\ud0dc\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/moneyweek.com\/investments\/property\/house-prices\/604717\/fred-harrison-house-prices-will-peak-in-2026#:~:text=Fred%3A%20It%20will%20be%20in,promised%20to%20cut%20taxes%20in\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\ub9cc\uc57d \ud30c\ud154\uc758 \uc608\uce21\ub300\ub85c <strong>2026\ub144 \uc804\ud6c4\ub85c \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30\uae09\uc758 \uc870\uc815<\/strong>\uc774 \uc628\ub2e4\uba74, \uc774\ub294 <strong>2020\ub144\ub300 \ud6c4\ubc18 \uc138\uacc4 \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0 \uc911\ub300\ud55c \ud30c\uc7a5<\/strong>\uc744 \ubbf8\uce60 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud30c\ud154\uc740 \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c <strong>\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc2dc\ub098\ub9ac\uc624\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ub300\ube44<\/strong>\ub97c \uac15\uc870\ud558\ub294\ub370, \uadf8\ub294 <strong>\uc9c0\uae08 \ub2e8\uacc4\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc7a5 \uacbd\uacc4\ud560 \uac83\uc740 \uacfc\ub3c4\ud55c \ubd80\ucc44\uc640 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0<\/strong>\ub77c\uace0 \ub9d0\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics\/#:~:text=steadily%20during%20these%20phases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>. \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \ub9d0\uae30\uc5d0\ub294 \ubaa8\ub4e0 \uac83\uc774 \uc7a5\ubc0b\ube5b\uc73c\ub85c \ubcf4\uc774\uc9c0\ub9cc, <strong>\ubc14\ub85c \uadf8 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0 \ubb34\ub9ac\ud558\uac8c \ud22c\uc790\ud655\ub300\ub098 \ucc28\uc785\uc744 \ud558\uba74 \ub2e4\uc74c \ubd95\uad34 \ub54c \uce58\uba85\ud0c0<\/strong>\ub97c \uc785\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics\/#:~:text=The%20final%20two%20years%20of,all%20in%20and%20highly%20leveraged\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>. \ub530\ub77c\uc11c \ud604\uc7ac(2025\ub144) \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc740 <strong>\ud3ec\ud2b8\ud3f4\ub9ac\uc624\ub97c \uc7ac\uc810\uac80<\/strong>\ud558\uc5ec \uac70\ud488\uae30 \uc7ac\uc0b0\uc744 \uc9c0\ud0a4\ub294 \uc804\ub7b5\uc744 \ucde8\ud558\uace0, <strong>\ud604\uae08\uc744 \ud655\ubcf4<\/strong>\ud558\uac70\ub098 \ubc29\uc5b4\uc801 \uc790\uc0b0\uc73c\ub85c \uc77c\ubd80 \uc62e\uaca8\ub193\ub294 \ub4f1 \ubcf4\uc218\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc6b4\uc601\ud560 \ud544\uc694\uac00 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc870\uc5b8\uc774 \ub098\uc635\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics\/#:~:text=The%20final%20two%20years%20of,all%20in%20and%20highly%20leveraged\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>. \uc2e4\uc81c \ud30c\ud154\uc740 \uc790\uc2e0\uc758 \uc800\uc11c\uc5d0\uc11c \ud638\ud669\uae30 \ud6c4\ubc18\uc5d0\ub294 *\u201c\uc808\ub300\ub85c \ud480 \ub808\ubc84\ub9ac\uc9c0\ub85c \uc62c\uc778\ud558\uc9c0 \ub9d0\ub77c\u201d*\uace0 \uacbd\uace0\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics\/#:~:text=steadily%20during%20these%20phases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\ud5a5\ud6c4 \uc804\ub9dd\uc5d0 \ub300\ud574\uc11c, \ud30c\ud154\uc740 <strong>2026\ub144 \uc704\uae30 \uc774\ud6c4\uc758 \uae30\ud68c<\/strong>\ub3c4 \ud568\uaed8 \uc5b8\uae09\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ub9cc\uc57d \uc608\uc0c1\ub300\ub85c \uac70\ud488\uc774 \uaebc\uc9c0\uace0 \uc790\uc0b0\uac00\uaca9\uc774 \ud3ed\ub77d\ud55c\ub2e4\uba74, <strong>2026~2028\ub144\uacbd\uc740 \uc0c8\ub85c\uc6b4 \ubd80\uc758 \ucd95\uc801\uc744 \uc2dc\uc791\ud560 \uc774\uc0c1\uc801 \uc2dc\uc810<\/strong>\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\uc758 \ud45c\ud604\uc744 \ube4c\ub9ac\uba74, *\u201c4\ub144 \uc704\uae30 \uae30\uac04\ub9cc \uc7ac\uc815\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc0b4\uc544\ub0a8\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\uba74, \uadf8 \ud6c4 \ucc3e\uc544\uc624\ub294 \uc5c4\uccad\ub09c \ud5d0\uac12 \ub9e4\uc218 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc7a1\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\u201d*\uace0 \ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics\/#:~:text=excess%20are%20apparent%20everywhere,all%20in%20and%20highly%20leveraged\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>. \uc774\ub294 2008\ub144 \uae08\uc735\uc704\uae30 \ud6c4 \ubc14\ub2e5\uc5d0\uc11c \uc790\uc0b0\uc744 \uc0b0 \ud22c\uc790\uc790\ub4e4\uc774 \ud070 \ubd80\ub97c \ucd95\uc801\ud55c \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc640\ub3c4 \ub9de\ub2ff\uc544 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc694\ucee8\ub300 <strong>2020\ub144\ub300 \ub9d0\uc758 \uce68\uccb4\ub294 \uc704\ud611\uc778 \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 \ub2e4\uc74c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uc900\ube44\ud558\ub294 \uc790\uc5d0\uac8c\ub294 \uac70\ub300\ud55c \uae30\ud68c<\/strong>\uac00 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uac83\uc774 \ud30c\ud154 \uc774\ub860\uc758 \uad81\uadf9\uc801 \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc2e4\uc81c \u300e\ubd80\ub97c \ucc3d\ucd9c\ud558\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \ube44\ubc00\u300f \ucc45 \uc81c\ubaa9\uc5d0 \ub2f4\uae34 \uc758\ubbf8\ub3c4, <strong>\uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc758 \u201c\ube44\ubc00\u201d\uc744 \uc54c\uc544\uc57c \u201c\ubd80\uc758 \ucd95\uc801\u201d\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc7a1\uc744 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4<\/strong>\ub294 \uba54\uc2dc\uc9c0\ub77c \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/thesecretwealthadvantage.com\/#:~:text=The%20Secret%20Wealth%20Advantage%20takes,year%20economic%20cycle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/thesecretwealthadvantage.com\/#:~:text=Find%20out%20everything%20you%20need,booms%20and%20busts%20can%20get\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\ubb3c\ub860 <strong>\uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc804\ub9dd\uc740 \uc5b4\ub514\uae4c\uc9c0\ub098 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc774\ub860\uc5d0 \uadfc\uac70\ud55c \uac00\ub2a5\uc131 \uc81c\uc2dc<\/strong>\uc774\uc9c0 \ud655\uc815\ub860\uc774 \uc544\ub2d9\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud604\uc7ac \uae00\ub85c\ubc8c \uacbd\uc81c\uc5d0\ub294 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc774\ub860\uc73c\ub85c \ud3ec\ucc29\ud558\uae30 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6b4 \ubcc0\uc218\ub4e4(\uc608: \uc9c0\uc815\ud559\uc801 \uac08\ub4f1, \uae30\ud6c4\ubcc0\ud654 \ub300\uc751 \ube44\uc6a9, \uc2e0\ud765\uad6d \ubd80\ucc44\uc704\uae30 \ub4f1)\ub3c4 \uc0b0\uc7ac\ud574 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub7fc\uc5d0\ub3c4 \ubd88\uad6c\ud558\uace0 \ud30c\ud154\uc758 18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc740 <strong>\uacfc\uac70 \uc0ac\ub840\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \ud1b5\ucc30\uacfc \ud568\uaed8, \uc8fc\uae30 \ub9d0\uae30\uc5d0 \ub098\ud0c0\ub098\ub294 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc2e0\ud638\ub4e4\uc744 \uc77c\uae68\uc6cc\uc900\ub2e4<\/strong>\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \uc720\uc6a9\ud55c \uacbd\uace0\ub4f1 \uc5ed\ud560\uc744 \ud558\uace0 \uc788\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/articles\/will-home-prices-crash-2026#:~:text=Another%20predictor%20of%20home%20prices,crash%20will%20occur%20in%202026\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \ud2b9\ud788 2025\ub144 \uc2dc\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \ub9ce\uc740 \uc804\ubb38\uac00\ub4e4\uc774 \u201c\ub192\uc740 \ubd80\ucc44, \uc790\uc0b0\uac00\uaca9 \ubc84\ube14, \ud1b5\ud654\uae34\ucd95\u201d \ub4f1\uc744 \uc704\ud5d8 \uc694\uc778\uc73c\ub85c \uac70\ub860\ud558\uace0 \uc788\ub294\ub370, \uc774\ub294 \ud30c\ud154 \uc774\ub860\uc5d0\uc11c \uc608\uacac\ub41c <strong>\ubc84\ube14 \ubd95\uad34 \uc804\uc57c\uc758 \uc804\ud615\uc801 \uc9d5\ud6c4<\/strong>\ub4e4\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/moneylifeshow.libsyn.com\/author-patel-sees-an-exuberant-rally-ahead-and-then-a-crash#:~:text=the%20economy%20is%20nearing%20the,average%20American%20spends%20on%20products\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>. \uacb0\uacfc\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ud30c\ud154\uc758 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc774\ub860\uc740 \ud604\uc7ac \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc640 \uc815\ucc45\uc785\uc548\uc790\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c **\u201c\uc9c0\uae08\uc774 \uc5b4\ub514\ucbe4\uc778\uc9c0\ub97c \uc790\uac01\ud558\uace0 \ub300\ube44\ucc45\uc744 \ub9c8\ub828\ud558\ub77c\u201d**\ub294 \uc911\uc694\ud55c \uc2dc\uc0ac\uc810\uc744 \uc8fc\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4\uace0 \ud558\uaca0\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\uacb0\ub860<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\uc544\ud0ac \ud30c\ud154\uc758 <strong>18\ub144 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc774\ub860<\/strong>\uc740 <strong>\ubd80\ub3d9\uc0b0\uc744 \uc911\uc2ec\uc73c\ub85c \ud55c \uc7a5\uae30 \uacbd\uae30\ubcc0\ub3d9\uc758 \uc228\uc740 \uaddc\uce59\uc131<\/strong>\uc744 \ubc1d\ud600\ub0b4\ub824\ub294 \uc2dc\ub3c4\ub85c\uc11c, \uadf8\uc758 \uc800\uc11c\uc640 \ub2e4\uc591\ud55c \ud65c\ub3d9\uc744 \ud1b5\ud574 \uc138\uc0c1\uc5d0 \uc18c\uac1c\ub418\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \ud575\uc2ec \uc8fc\uc7a5\uc740 <strong>\ud1a0\uc9c0 \ud22c\uae30\uac00 \uc8fc\uae30\uc801 \ubd95\uad34\ub97c \ucd08\ub798\ud558\uba70 \uadf8 \uc8fc\uae30\uac00 \uc57d 18\ub144<\/strong>\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uac83\uc73c\ub85c, \uadf8\ub294 \uc774\ub97c \uc5ed\uc0ac\uc801 \ub370\uc774\ud130\ub85c \ub4b7\ubc1b\uce68\ud558\uba74\uc11c <strong>\ubbf8\ub798 \uacbd\uae30 \uc608\uce21\uacfc \ud22c\uc790\uc804\ub7b5<\/strong>\uc5d0 \uc801\uc6a9\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub294 \ud2c0\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/wnl72wlr.tistory.com\/674#:~:text=%EC%9D%B4%20%EC%B1%85%EC%9D%B4%20%EC%A3%BC%EB%AA%A9%EB%B0%9B%EB%8A%94%20%EC%9D%B4%EC%9C%A0%EB%8A%94%20%EB%B3%B5%EC%9E%A1%ED%95%9C,%EB%8C%80%EB%B9%84%ED%95%A0%20%EC%88%98%20%EC%9E%88%EB%8A%94%20%ED%86%B5%EC%B0%B0%EB%A0%A5%EC%9D%84%20%EC%A0%9C%EA%B3%B5%ED%95%A9%EB%8B%88%EB%8B%A4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics\/#:~:text=Have%20a%20look%20at%20prior,what%20happened%20after%20that%2C%20right\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>. \ud30c\ud154 \ubcf8\uc778\uc774 \uc791\uc131\ud55c \uce7c\ub7fc\uacfc \uac15\uc5f0 \uc790\ub8cc\ub4e4\uc740 \uc774\ub860\uc758 \uc774\uba74\uc5d0 \uc788\ub294 **\uacbd\uc81c\ud559\uc801 \uc6d0\ub9ac(\uc9c0\ub300\ubc95\uce59)**\uc640 <strong>\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc2ec\ub9ac\uc801 \uc694\uc778<\/strong>\uae4c\uc9c0 \uc544\uc6b0\ub974\uba70, \uadf8\uc758 \ubaa8\ub378\uc5d0 \ub300\ud55c \uc774\ud574\ub97c \ub113\ud600\uc8fc\uc5c8\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc678\ubd80\uc758 \ud3c9\uac00\uc5d0 \uc788\uc5b4\uc11c, <strong>\uacfc\uac70 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840 \uc704\uae30\ub97c \ub9de\ucd98 \uc774\ub860<\/strong>\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \ucc2c\uc0ac\uc640 \ud568\uaed8 <strong>\ub108\ubb34 \ud655\uc2e0\ud558\uae30 \uc774\ub974\ub2e4<\/strong>\ub294 \uc2e0\uc911\ub860\uc774 \uad50\ucc28\ud558\uc9c0\ub9cc, \uc774\ub294 \uc624\ud788\ub824 \uc774 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc774\ub860\uc774 \ud604\uc7ac \ud22c\uc790\ub2f4\ub860\uc5d0\uc11c <strong>\ub728\uac70\uc6b4 \ub17c\uc7c1\uc758 \ub300\uc0c1<\/strong>\uc784\uc744 \ubcf4\uc5ec\uc90d\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\">\uacfc\uac70 \uc0ac\ub840\ub97c \ubcfc \ub54c \ud30c\ud154\uc758 <strong>18\ub144 \uc8fc\uae30\uc124\uc740 \uc0c1\ub2f9\ud55c \uc124\uba85\ub825\uc744 \uc9c0\ub2c8\uc9c0\ub9cc<\/strong>, \ub3d9\uc2dc\uc5d0 <strong>\uc804\uc7c1 \ub4f1 \uc608\uc678 \uc0c1\ud669\uc5d0\uc11c\ub294 \uc5b4\uae0b\ub09c \uc804\ub840<\/strong>\ub3c4 \uc788\ub2e4\ub294 \uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \uc808\ub300\ud654\ub294 \uae08\ubb3c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/www.biggerpockets.com\/forums\/48\/topics\/152459-18-year-real-estate-cycles---next-bust-2024?page=2#:~:text=Foldvary%20uses%20as%20the%20basis,Foldvary%27s%20full%2040%20page%20brief\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">.<\/a>. \uad81\uadf9\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \uc774 \uc774\ub860\uc774 \uac16\ub294 \uac00\uc7a5 \ud070 \uac00\uce58\ub77c\uba74, <strong>\uc7a5\uae30\uc801 \uad00\uc810\uc5d0\uc11c \uc2dc\uc7a5\uc744 \uc870\ub9dd<\/strong>\ud558\uac8c \ud574\uc8fc\uace0 <strong>\ud0d0\uc695\uacfc \uacf5\ud3ec\uc758 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074\uc744 \uc778\uc9c0<\/strong>\ud558\uac8c \ud568\uc73c\ub85c\uc368, \ud22c\uc790\uc790\uc640 \uc815\ucc45\ub2f9\uad6d \ubaa8\ub450 <strong>\ubcf4\ub2e4 \uc900\ube44\ub41c \ub300\uc751<\/strong>\uc744 \ud560 \uc218 \uc788\uac8c \ub3c4\uc640\uc900\ub2e4\ub294 \ub370 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4<a href=\"https:\/\/wnl72wlr.tistory.com\/674#:~:text=%EA%B2%B0%EB%A1%A0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">..<\/a>. \uc9c0\uae08 2025\ub144\uc744 \uc0ac\ub294 \uc6b0\ub9ac\uc5d0\uac8c \ud30c\ud154\uc758 \uc774\ub860\uc774 \uc8fc\ub294 \uacbd\uace0\ub294 \ubd84\uba85\ud569\ub2c8\ub2e4. <strong>\u201c\uc5ed\uc0ac\ub294 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub41c\ub2e4. \ub2e4\ub9cc \uc900\ube44\ub41c \uc790\ub9cc\uc774 \uadf8 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \ubd80\uc758 \uae30\ud68c\ub97c \uc7a1\uace0, \ub610 \uc704\uae30\uc758 \ud53c\ud574\ub97c \ucd5c\uc18c\ud654\ud560 \uc218 \uc788\ub2e4.\u201d<\/strong> \uacbd\uc81c\uac00 \uc8fc\uae30\uc801\uc73c\ub85c \ucc3e\uc544\uc624\ub294 <strong>\ubd90\uacfc \ubc84\uc2a4\ud2b8<\/strong>\uc758 \ub9ac\ub4ec\uc744 \uc774\ud574\ud558\uace0\uc790 \ud558\ub294 \uc774\ub4e4\uc5d0\uac8c \uc544\ud0ac \ud30c\ud154\uc758 \ud1b5\ucc30\uc740 \uc720\uc6a9\ud55c \ub098\uce68\ubc18\uc774 \ub420 \uc218 \uc788\uc744 \uac83\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"line-height:1.7\"><strong>\ucc38\uace0\uc790\ub8cc:<\/strong> \uc544\ud0ac \ud30c\ud154 \uc800\uc11c \ubc0f \uce7c\ub7fc \uc778\uc6a9, Shares Magazine \ub9ac\ubdf0<a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/akhils-archives-property-share-market-economics\/why-understanding-the-property-cycle-is-crucial-to-growing-and-preserving-your-personal-wealth\/#:~:text=In%20this%20Shares%20Magazine%20article%2C,time%20for%20the%20next%20cycle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com<\/a>, Property Sharemarket Economics \uc790\ub8cc<a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics\/#:~:text=Each%2018.6,and%20then%20four%20years%20down\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com\/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics\/#:~:text=Have%20a%20look%20at%20prior,what%20happened%20after%20that%2C%20right\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com<\/a>, Moneyweek \uc778\ud130\ubdf0<a href=\"https:\/\/moneyweek.com\/investments\/property\/house-prices\/604717\/fred-harrison-house-prices-will-peak-in-2026#:~:text=Fred%3A%20It%20will%20be%20in,promised%20to%20cut%20taxes%20in\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">moneyweek.com<\/a>, Money Life Podcast<a href=\"https:\/\/moneylifeshow.libsyn.com\/author-patel-sees-an-exuberant-rally-ahead-and-then-a-crash#:~:text=Akhil%20Patel%2C%20author%20of%20%27The,average%20American%20spends%20on%20products\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">moneylifeshow.libsyn.com<\/a> \ub4f1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\uc544\ud0ac \ud30c\ud154\uacfc \uadf8\uc758 \uc774\ub860 \uac1c\uc694 \uc625\uc2a4\ud37c\ub4dc \ucd9c\uc2e0 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubb38\uac00 \uc544\ud0ac \ud30c\ud154(Akhil Patel)\uc740 \uacbd\uc81c\uc640 \uae08\uc735\uc2dc\uc7a5\uc758 \uc8fc\uae30\uc801 \ubcc0\ub3d9\uc131\uc744 \uc5f0\uad6c\ud558\uc5ec \uc57d 18\ub144\uc744 \uc8fc\uae30\ub85c \ubc18\ubcf5\ub418\ub294 \uacbd\uc81c \uc0ac\uc774\ud074 \uc774\ub860\uc744 \uc81c\uc2dc\ud55c \uc778\ubb3c\uc785\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uadf8\ub294 1990\ub144\ub300 \ucd08\uc640 2008\ub144 \ub450 \ucc28\ub840\uc758 \ud070 \ubd88\ud669 \uc18d\uc5d0\uc11c \uac00\uc871 \uc0ac\uc5c5\uc774 \uc5b4\ub824\uc6c0\uc744 \uacaa\uc740 \uacbd\ud5d8\uc744 \uacc4\uae30\ub85c \u201c\uc65c \uc774\ub7ec\ud55c \uc704\uae30\uac00 \ubc18\ubcf5\ub418\ub294\uac00, \uc815\ub9d0 \uc608\uce21 \ubd88\uac00\ub2a5\ud55c\uac00\u201d\ub97c \ud0d0\uad6c\ud558\uae30 \uc2dc\uc791\ud588\uc2b5\ub2c8\ub2e4. \uc57d 10\ub144\uc5d0 \uac78\uce5c \uc5f0\uad6c \ub05d\uc5d0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":311,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_kadence_starter_templates_imported_post":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[97],"tags":[417,422,416,421,418,420,423,409,419,378],"class_list":["post-299","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-97","tag-417","tag-422","tag-416","tag-421","tag-418","tag-420","tag-423","tag-409","tag-419","tag-378"],"blocksy_meta":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>2026\ub144 \uacbd\uc81c\uc704\uae30 [PART3 \uc544\ud0ac \ud30c\ud154\uc758 &#039;18\ub144 \uc0ac\uc774\ud074] - Text Revier<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\uc625\uc2a4\ud37c\ub4dc \ucd9c\uc2e0 \uacbd\uc81c \uc804\ubb38\uac00 \uc544\ud0ac \ud30c\ud154\uc740 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